The Toronto Maple Leafs’ decision to sign Sergei Bobrovsky for three years came with enormous risk. General manager John Chayka gambled that a goaltender — albeit one destined for the Hockey Hall of Fame — coming off the worst season of his career at 37 would rebound.
At least to start the season, the worst-case scenario has come to pass. Sure, it’s a small sample size, but Bobrovsky has allowed at least three goals in nine of his 10 starts, already leading to questions about whether the Maple Leafs should adjust his workload.
“We brought (Bobrovsky) in to be there when the pressure ramps up and we need a rock back there,” Chayka told reporters.
Unfortunately, Bobrovsky has yet to harden into that rock. His .809 save percentage on slot shots ranks 39th out of 53 goaltenders who have appeared in at least five games this season. It is an improvement from the .789 he posted last season with the Florida Panthers that ranked 64th among 66 qualified goaltenders (minimum 20 games played).
But more is expected from the ninth-highest-paid goaltender in that group. (Across Florida’s consecutive Stanley Cup-winning seasons in 2023-24 and 2024-25, Bobrovsky recorded an .839 slot save percentage.)
“I don’t try to overthink, I try to stay just with the moment and try to stop the next shot,” Bobrovsky told reporters. “It is a new team. It’s not only me, lots of new pieces, new system, new guys, so we just build the chemistry, build the belief.”
All athletes, even those as finely tuned as Bobrovsky, eventually lose their sharpness. In Bobrovsky’s case, his reflexes appear to have slowed.
Opponents have been picking on Bobrovsky’s glove hand, which seems to have lost some of its zip. Bobrovsky has given up 16 high-glove goals this season, most in the league. That accounts for 48.5 per cent of the total goals he has surrendered. Last season, 34.4 per cent of the goals scored on Bobrovsky beat him high glove.
Bobrovsky’s ability to battle through screens has also diminished. His save percentage on those shots has fallen from .898 to .827 year over year. Six of the 16 high-glove goals that Bobrovsky has allowed have been screened.
On Tuesday against the Utah Mammoth, the Maple Leafs will turn to Bobrovsky for the 11th time in 17 games this season, which puts him on pace for 54 starts. Since 2005-06, there have been eight instances of a goaltender making at least 50 starts in a season at age 38 or older. Martin Brodeur, who started 59 games for the New Jersey Devils in 2011-12, was the last to do so.
Maple Leafs coach Jim Hiller told reporters Monday that the team’s goaltending schedule has been “laid out for quite some time.”
“I can appreciate the questions, but we haven’t talked about it (nearly) as much as you guys,” Hiller said. “I’ve talked about it more (Monday) than we’ve talked about it in two weeks with our coaches and management.”
Backup Anthony Stolarz has been solid over his six starts, with 0.48 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (2.87 total), 10th out of 53 qualified goaltenders. He has as many quality starts in six tries as Bobrovsky does in 10 (four), as well as a much better .876 slot save percentage. But the Maple Leafs are not deviating from their plan, even if Stolarz is outplaying Bobrovsky.
“It’s not up to me,” Stolarz, who teamed with Bobrovsky to win the Stanley Cup with the Panthers in 2024, told reporters Monday. “My job is to go out there, prepare every day and just be ready to go. That’s all I’ve been focusing on.
“(Bobrovsky is) one of the more battled-tested guys in this league. He’s played in three Stanley Cup Finals. He’s played in the Olympics. I’ve seen him at his best, and he’s one hell of a goalie. The way he works day in and day out, the proof’s in the pudding, and he’ll get back on track here and be coming up big for us (moving) forward.”
--All stats via Sportlogiq/Teamworks
